1.0 Introduction 简介
Leadership is the ability to inspire team members' enthusiasm and imagination, and the ability to command the team members to go all out to accomplish their goals (Graeff, 1997). Leadership challenge can be described as a combination of behaviors that will inspire people to follow the leader, which is not simply obeying (Bennis, 1959). With the development of modern human resource management research and practice, the importance of leadership for enterprise development is increasingly recognized (Bono, 2004). Effective leadership can help companies to make correct strategic decisions and help enterprises to build a harmonious work team, so as to effectively motivate employees’ enthusiasm at work (Organ, 1996). However, about what kind of leadership is the most suitable for enterprises, since the emergence of the concept of leadership, different scholars have given different theories, these theories have their own advantages and disadvantages, to understand the characteristics of these theories and explore how to apply them to an enterprise’s specific management practice is a very valuable subject. In this essay, a company named Tents-r-Us was took as the research object of a case study, based on the theory of leadership to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their leadership to recommend on how to improve their leadership in the future.
2.0 Literature review 文献综述
2.1 Great man theory
Great man theory argues that the characteristics of a leader are derived from physiological inheritance, and a leader can only become an effective leader with these characteristics (Barrick and Mount, 1991). In 1949, W. Henry pointed out that successful leaders should have twelve kinds of qualities: strong desire for achievements, work enthusiasm, strong ability in making decision, strong self-confidence, agile thought, aggressive heart and so on (Organ, 1996). Great man theory has the deficiencies reflected in the following areas: there is less correlation between the various characteristics, some are even contradictory, and people who are considered to have the characteristics of genius leaders do not become leaders (Organ, 1996).
2.2 Trait theory
Trait theory believes that: the characteristics and quality of leaders can be formed in leadership practice, it can also be created through training and cultivating (Atwater and Yammarino, 1993). William Jack Baumol put forward ten conditions that business leaders should have: the spirit of cooperation; decision-making ability; organizational skills; being good at authorization; being good at dealing with different situations; courage to be responsible; courage to innovate; dare to take risks; respect for others; super morality (Bono and Judge, 2004). There are some shortcomings in trait theory. Firstly, the theory ignores subordinates, and subordinates often have an important impact on the effectiveness of leadership (Atwater and Yammarino, 1993). Secondly, with the development and depth of the study, the number of traits that are regarded as leaders' characteristics is increasing, and there is a growing trend, which leads to theoretical disputes and confusion (Bono and Judge, 2004).
2.3 Behavioural approach
Behavioural approach is through study on the specific behavior of leaders in the process of leadership, and the impact of different acts on the subordinates to look for the best leadership behavior (Misumi, 1985). Behavioural approach behavior mainly classifies leadership behavior from two perspectives of concern about people and concern about production, as well as control of superior and subordinate participation (Bennis, 1959). Behavioural approach’s main drawback is the lack of consideration of the factors that affect success and failure. The relationship between leadership behavior and the effectiveness of leadership also depends on task structure, the relationship between leaders and members, leadership authority, subordinates’ leading demand and other situational factors (Bennis, 1959).
2.4 Situational Approach
Situational approach figures that there is no best form of leadership, only the most appropriate form of leadership (Avery and Ryan, 2002). It argues that a leader's style and manner of leadership should be compatible with the maturity of the subordinate staff (Graeff, 1997). When the subordinate staff matures, the leader will succeed in choosing a correct leadership style based on the maturity level of the subordinates (Avery and Ryan, 2002).
2.5 Contingency Approach
Contingency approach indicates that an organization is an open subsystem in a social system, which is affected by the environment (Houghton and Yoho, 2005). Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the best adaptability to the environment according to the situation and role of the enterprise organization in the social system to adopt corresponding organizational management measures. Only when the organizational form is properly designed, the organization's management style can meet the needs of the organization and be close to the organizational attributes, can all needs of the organization be satisfied (Rice and Kastenbaum, 1983).
3.0 Case study 案例分析
3.1 Enlightenment of great man theory for Peter Ridge’s leadership
As Tents-r-Us’ leader, Peter Ridge showed the leadership which embodied the characteristics of the great man theory. For instance, Peter Ridge maintained a hands-on presence in the day to day management of the company as well as providing strategic vision as the Managing Director; he thought that he has built the company and he would decide what happens.
His leadership style has a certain advantage reflected in the following aspects. Firstly, Peter Ridge as the founder of the enterprise, has a strong desire for success, and he works seriously, the company under his leadership has also achieved initial success, the size of the company is in the expansion, the company's operating market is also expanding. Secondly, Peter Ridge has absolute decision-making power in the company, so the company is often able to make decisions quickly, which improves the company's ability to adapt to an external competitive environment, which is one of the reasons for the company's success. Finally, in the day-to-day management of the enterprise, Peter Ridge has absolute authority, the employees have to obey his management, which not only improves the efficiency of management, but also effectively avoids the staff’s lazy behavior to reduce the cost of management.
Of course, there are some shortcomings in Peter Ridge's leadership style. Firstly, his management will make the employees feel that they are not respected, reducing the employee's sense of belonging to the enterprise and their enthusiasm at work, which may lead to the problems in the internal cooperation between the employees. For example, employees of Tents- r-Us argued about their roles within the organization. Secondly, when Tents-r-Us continues to expand in terms of organizational scale and scope of business, many of the new problems it faces may need the employees to propose solutions, but Peter Ridge's leadership approach leads that the employees are reluctant or have no chance to positively contribute their own wisdom and ability to the company.
3.2 Enlightenment of trait theory for Peter Ridge’s leadership
Peter Ridge needed outside talents to help him to solve the problems met in the development process of the enterprise, he wanted to choose one from Mhari and Susi to help him. As the leader of the enterprise, Peter Ridge can be based on the trait theory to select a person to help him with management of the enterprise. Using trait theory to select talents has the following benefits. Firstly, the trait theory allows Peter Ridge to know what qualities that a good talent should possess. Peter Ridge can select talents based on these criteria, such as the traits that Mhari has include ambitious, keen to make decisions, intelligent and competent. Susi's qualities include, she is creative, consultative, willing to take direction. Secondly, the trait theory holds that the characteristics and qualities of a leader can be formed in the practice of leadership, as well as through training and cultivation. It explains how the traits of a talented person form. In choosing a talented person, Peter Ridge needs to examine not only the existing traits of the talents, but also the talents’ future value and potential in cultivation, in order to better serve for the enterprise in the future.
Peter Ridge was based on trait theory to select the talents, which has the following weaknesses. First of all, people in different environments may show different traits, so it can't ignore the impact of environment on talents’ traits. What Mhari and Susi showed in the past in their enterprises might not the same as what they will show in Tents-r-Us. Secondly, Mhari and Susi showed a lot of good qualities, but whether these traits are needed by Tents-r-Us, the trait theory does not give Peter Ridge a clear suggestion.
3.3 Enlightenment of behavioral approach for Peter Ridge’s leadership
Behavioral approach can help to understand which behaviors of leaders are welcomed by employees and which behaviors are the best leadership behaviors. Peter Ridge was based on the behavioral approach to improve his own leadership, which has the following advantages. First, all, he is able to understand what behavior is needed to be improved, for example, his past authoritarian leadership behavior has not been welcomed by the employees, and the autocratic leadership behavior was a little problem in the enterprise when it was not large enough, but as the company develops, his autocratic behavior will meet many problems and it needs to be improved. Second, he can be based on behavioral approach to determine the leadership style of Mhari’s and Susi’s, so as to choose the more suitable talent, Mhari tends to have a more authoritarian leadership style, while Susi’s leadership style is more consultative, Susi prefers to listen to the opinions of the staff’s, judging from this perspective, choosing Susi is more appropriate for the enterprise.
Peter Ridge’s referring to behavioral approach to improve the leadership, which also has the following shortcomings. First of all, the success or failure of leadership depends not only on a leader’s own behavior, but also on some other factors, including task structure, the relationships between the leader and the members, the leader’s authority, the subordinates’ dominant demand, as well as other situational factors. Therefore, the success of the leadership can't just judge from the behavior of the leader. Second, only from the perspective of a leader’s behavior to improve leadership ignores the subjective initiative of employees, without the staff's positive response, just relying on improvement of the leader’s behavior is unable to effectively improve the leadership.
3.4 Enlightenment of situational approach for Peter Ridge’s leadership
Situational approach suggests that leaders' style should be commensurate with the maturity of their subordinates. Peter Ridge found that the employees were not satisfied with his past authoritarian leadership style, then he decided to adopt a more inclusive leadership style, it was a positive performance of improving his leadership. According to situational approach to improve the leadership has the following advantages. First, Tents-r-Us has an increasing scale, its organization structure, enterprise culture and competitive environment may change accordingly, the internal and external environmental changes will result in that the difficulty of its internal management and decision-making will be dramatically increased, the leader must rely on the collective or the power of the team to better cope with the challenge, and Peter Ridge’s authoritarian leadership style in the past obviously can't play the role of employee motivation, and adopting an inclusive leadership style is more suitable for the current environmental changes. Second, with the development of the enterprise, the staff is also becoming more mature, they have more mature skills and experience, and they will demand more participation in the management of the enterprise, if the leader ignores their changes and still takes the autocratic leadership style, it will cause the staff’s dissatisfaction.
Peter Ridge's improvement in leadership based on situational approach has the following disadvantages. First, a leader’s change its way of leadership, which is not just the adjustment of the leader’s individual behavior, but also the adjustment in the decision-making process, organizational structure, corporate culture, organizational communication and many other aspects, whether the leader is able to implement these supporting measures properly is a challenge for the leader's personal ability. Second, the leadership style is adjusted with the maturity of the staff, but the success of the enterprise not only relies on the employee, it also needs to adapt to the external environment, thus the leadership adjustment that the leader makes may not be very authentic.
3.5 Implications of contingency approach for Peter Ridge's leadership
Contingency approach believes that an organization is an open subsystem in a social system, it is affected by the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the best adaptability to the environment according to the situation and role of the organization in the social system to adopt corresponding organizational management measures. Peter Ridge’s past leadership is mainly task focused, with the development and expansion of the enterprise, his past leadership style should be adjusted. According to contingency approach to adjust the leadership style has the following advantages, first of all, contingency approach provides a comprehensive and overall consideration of the impact of the internal environment and the external environment on the enterprise, and based on the results of the analysis to make adjustments on the leadership, such adjustments should be authentic. Second, contingency theory is a dynamic view for the adjustment of the leadership, it helps to help Peter Ridge to make the optimal adjustment of the leadership in the dynamic environment, which is very useful for the enterprises to adapt to the changing internal and external environment.
Weaknesses of Peter Ridge’s emphasis on the contingency approach to adjust his leadership style lie in that, first of all, theoretically, the contingency approach is basically exhaustive for the adjustment and perfection of leadership, but at the level of practical operation, it has a higher demand for leadership, it requires that Peter Ridge should be keen to find meaningful changes in the internal and external environment to make the right leadership adjustment decisions, which is not an easy thing for Peter Ridge. Second, too frequent and large scale leadership adjustment may make employees feel that they do not know what course to take, thus it is very important for the leader to find a balance between leadership adjustment and the stability of the leadership, and it is also not easy.
4.0 Conclusion and recommendation 结论和建议
Peter Ridge’s past leadership style based on the great man theory in Tents-r-Us needs to be improved, the adjustment for the leadership can be carried out from the following three aspects. In the first aspect, he should refer to contingency approach to analyze how the changeable internal and external environment of the enterprise impacts the enterprise and the leadership. In the second aspect, the leader should be based on the trait theory, the behavioral approach, and the situational approach to understand the traits of the talents recruited, the leader's behavior and the employees’ levels of maturity, so as to determine what kind of leadership style and type that Tents-r-Us needs. In the third aspect, based on understanding the changeable internal and external environment and the special needs of the enterprise’s, they should develop leadership adjustment strategy, paying attention to the operability of the strategy, for instance, the leadership adjustment strategy can not be too complicated, frequent to make the employees feel that they have nothing to follow.
Maintaining the current market share, or being capable of growing in terms of market share, in this continuously changing world means that businesses cannot afford to stand still. In order to keep ahead in the face of increasing global competition, companies must closely follow developments in their external environment, which consists of: society, legal systems, economic factors, These factors are interrelated and are capable of significant change.
The industry chosen in order to analyze these factors and to which extent firms should take these factors into account is the airline industry. The external environment in which airlines operate is particularly volatile and difficult. All the factors mentioned above have a great impact on the airline industry in particular. Therefore the airlines industry is deemed to be an adequate proxy for the analysis.
In an attempt to analyze the external factors in order to evaluate how and to which extent companies should assess these external factors the SLEPT method will be used, i.e. an investigation of the Social, Legal, Economic, Political, and Technological influences on a business. Furthermore the reactive and anticipatory approaches will be discussed to evaluate which is more useful. In this report the following airlines will be used to explain the theory supplied: United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic. These were chosen, because of the differences in size and ways of operating.
Social factors and their significance when it comes to business-economics 社会因素及其在企业经济学中的意义
Social factors consist mainly out of cultural factors and social trends, namely health consciousness or consumer lifestyle. They also consist out of demographic factors, for example age distribution and population growth.
Every culture has different wants and needs, so when a business just focusses on only one culture or group of people, other cultures might feel left out and they will be less attracted to the company its service or product. For this reason a business needs to modify its business strategy to a large variety of cultures. To achieve superior customer service Virgin Airlines has done research into cultural diversity and they offer their staff training in cultural awareness. This way they are able to identify every cultural nuance affecting customer satisfaction. This suggests that businesses have to put a substantial amount of effort into focusing on cultural diversity as they can increase customer satisfaction when they do that.
It is crucial that businesses make their customers feel save when they use their products or services. Businesses can lay emphasis on their safety in order to attract more customers. When businesses are struggling to guarantee safety they attract fewer customers; the 9/11 attacks had a sizable impact on Virgin airlines and United Airlines, as the public was frightened to travel by airplane as there was a serious terrorism threat. Especially US domestic flight revenue decreased enormously right after these attacks, but when the threat decreased the revenues increased again. This shows that security has a significant effect on business economics.
When a lifestyle of a substantial amount of consumers shifts into a new phase, a company might suffer a severe drop or a sudden surge in market share depending on how the company focusses its product or service. For instance; Virgin Airlines offers the option to hire an extra seat for extra personal space. This is a great opportunity for couples who want some privacy during a flight, or families who demand extra space for their children. There are also certain shifts that cannot be influenced, but have a large influence on business-economics, For example the increased popularity of traveling abroad has been very beneficial for British Airways and Virgin Airlines, but they have not had any influence on this sudden shift in lifestyle, so lifestyles of consumers have a large impact on business economics
A business can focus its services and products on people that have a certain amount of health consciousness, but it can also alter its products so they are attractive for any customer regardless of their health consciousness. For example; Virgin airlines and British airways have to account for obese customers that might take more room and more fuel. To remain profitable, they are obliged to either induce a so called fat tax, where customers have to pay more when their weight is above a certain level, or sell the customer a second seat because they do not fit in a single seat.
As we have demonstrated, every single one of these factors has a major of impact on business-economics. They are also essential for the success of businesses since the lives of customers revolve around these factors. A business should adapt its strategy proactively to these factors in order to increase its profit and market share.
Legal and Political Legal and Political Factors as external factors 睡眠分析中的法律和政治法律和政治因素
Political and legal factors (which are closely related to each other) heavily affect businesses, profoundly influencing their modus operandi. When new laws and regulations are approved, companies and corporations are forced to change their business strategies, sometimes with considerable effects, sometimes with almost any consequence. In the following paragraphs, some example of laws and regulations affecting businesses are being analyzed.
Tax policies can seriously change the amount of profits that a firm is able to make. It is well known that each country applies a different tax policy, thus offering endless possibilities for a firm to choose its headquarters location, considering the pros and cons of each single situation. Firms having strong relationships with their national government, might be able to get tax exemptions and improve their competitiveness towards their international rival; In fact, in the Russian Federation, in 1997, the flag carrier Aeroflot enjoyed a tax exemption by their government on the purchase of four Boeing aircrafts. This for sure reduced the operating costs for Aeroflot and increased their competitiveness towards the other Eurasian companies who may not have enjoyed the same privilege. Another example of tax policies affecting the businesses is the tax increase on the airlines industry that occurred through the years, especially in the US. It is shown in table 1 that taxes have considerably gone up, thus increasing the ticket price and losing some customers who cannot afford a flight ticket to certain destinations anymore, often deciding to switch to train travel.
Trade Unions are a great achievement conquered by the working class in the last two centuries but a sometimes, unpredictable danger for companies. If not handled carefully, working class leaders, especially in western countries where concepts of democracy hold, can seriously damage a company performance. Companies need to engage into a stable relationship with them in order to avoid sudden stoppages of their services, which can lead to serious profit losses. For example in 1985, United Airlines experienced a 29 days long strike which resulted in huge losses in revenues. The company negotiators were able to restore the firm normal functioning only after multiple discussions and trade-offs with the workers’ representatives. This of course could have been avoided with a proactive behaviour, making sure that working conditions were optimal, or moving the company to a country where trade unions are easier to manipulate. Wars and changes in international relationships
For companies operating outside their national borders, good and stable relationships between countries are crucial. A war or a diplomatic misunderstanding can turn into a forced exit from some markets or in a loss of revenue. Before deciding to operate in a certain foreign country, a firm should deeply analyze the on-going relationship with its government. Moreover, once they decide to be in business with this hypothetical country, they should be ready to react to any possible event modifying the national political situation. This can turn extremely necessary for companies operating in unstable countries like Southern American, or Eastern European countries. For example, with the recent outbreak of a serious protest in Venezuela, potential airlines passengers may think twice before deciding to travel there. This change in public opinion has for sure reduced the revenue of many companies, including United Airlines, which provides flights from the US to the capital city, Caracas.
Economic factors and their influence on business economics 经济因素及其对企业经济的影响
The economic factors constitute a highly important phase of strategy development for business economics, since economic factors have direct impact on the potential attractiveness of various business ventures. It is highly likely that the economic factor will have a substantial effect on business economics, however it is very hard to take all the variables into account. A direct reactive approach is considered wise when it comes to the economy. Multiple variables, which cover a large part of the economy will be discussed in this section in order to test the hypothesis: personal wealth, competition and governments.
The effects of changes in personal wealth can have a substantial effect on business economics globally. Personal wealth is a combination of multiple variables, such as GDP per capita growth,interest rates, inflation rate, unemployment rates, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. Personal wealth can therefore be used as a proxy for the economy. For example, when the interest rates rise people are more likely to safe their money and that affects to which extent people are willing to consume. When comparing the amount of passengers carried (figure 1) and the world GDP per capita (figure 2) they seem to be correlated. The image is confirmed by the revenue stream in figure 3.The hypothesis that a decrease in personal wealth directly affects revenue, hence business economics
An equally important part of the economic assessment is identifying potential competitors and ascertaining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and possible strategies. Knowing your competitors, remains to be one of the key factors to success. Weaknesses of competitors can signify external opportunities, while major competitive strengths can pose key external threats. The more competitive information is collected, the easier it becomes to outsmart the competition. Virgin Atlantic proved this point. It had a marketing budget less than a third of what British Airways had for marketing, due to focused advertising and outsmarting the competition Virgin Atlantic was able to publish a profit of 68 million pounds, while British Airways had to report a 401 pound operating loss in 2009.
Governments form the last, but equally, important part of the analysis, since they have the power to implement and alter economic policy. Governments create the legislation and frameworks in which businesses compete with one another. From time to time the government will change these rules and frameworks forcing businesses to change the way they operate. Business is thus keenly affected by government policy. The airline industry for example had to cope with higher landing charges as well as additional taxes imposed on the air—travelling public directly affecting the revenue and profit.
Combining these three factors in the economic assessment in the SLEPT analysis suggest a confirmation of the hypothesis stated at the beginning of this section. Personal wealth, used a proxy for state of the economy, might be directly affecting business economics. Competitors and governments are also capable of directly affecting business economics. This suggests that the economic factors require a pro-active attitude, since it’s crucial to stay ahead of competition and that this can only be done by staying up to date on the new policies and the state of the economy.
Technological factors and business economics 技术因素与企业经济学
Technological factors affect business economics in a wide variety of ways. They play a strong role in the external environment of a firm and should be carefully assessed. Technological progress can reduce costs, improve quality and lead to innovation. These developments generally benefit both firms and consumers. However, the effects of technological progress can be very diverse. Failing to keep up with technological trends can cause serious economic damage. The assessment of technological factors is crucial for high-tech industries such as the airline industry.
The constant development of technology caters to the growing need of firms to meet issues of sustainability and safety. As mentioned earlier, there are increasingly strict legal rules regarding the materials that need to go into aircraft construction in order to make them safer and more resistant to fire hazards. The rules regarding emission and climate effects are also becoming increasingly strict. Due to technological progress, airline industries can adopt newly developed technologies and conform to these new laws and regulations. As mentioned before, airline industries also encounter another issue; that of increased safety needs and wants by consumers resulting from the terrorist attacks of 9/11.[ET1] In this specific case, adopting new air transportation security technology can help airline industries address these safety issues.
Though[ET2] it is the case that the airline industry employs technology extensively in its operations, they rely on aircraft producers such as Boeing and Airbus for their aircraft. With respect to aircraft technology, airline industries are limited to these aircraft producers. Therefore it is important for firms to take advantage of technological advancement in other elements of their operations. An example could be to employ more advanced technology in the front office of an airline industry. This can improve customer service which can result in an increase in ticket sales and consequently overall revenue. Another factor that should be taken into account by firms is technological advancement with respect to social media. Currently, social media is becoming increasingly important to firms all over the world as an effective marketing tool. Airline industries should realize this and adapt to the changing circumstances regarding this global trend.
Technological advancements do not always have positive effects on business economics. For example, technological progress with respect to communication and the exchange of information can have serious effects on the demand for air transportation. Technological innovations such as videoconferencing limits the need for face-to-face meetings in business, consequently making the need for air travel obsolete. Individuals who live far apart geographically no longer have to visit each other physically when the opportunity to communicate digitally presents itself as a decent low-cost alternative.
Due to the rapid development of technology, firms should stay focused and adapt quickly in order to survive in an increasingly competitive economic climate. At the moment, technology progresses so fast that it is becoming increasingly hard for firms to promptly adapt. Firms who fail to adapt can miss out on all of the potential positive effects from technological advancement and as a consequence lose market share[ET3].
When taking all the SLEPT analysis factors into account, they seem to suggest that each and every factors should be taken into account and that each factor requires a pro-active approach. Firstly, the social part of the analysis demonstrates that each and every single one of these factors has a major of impact on business-economics. They are also essential for the success of businesses since the lives of customers revolve around these factors. A business should adapt its strategy proactively to these factors in order to increase its profit and market share. Secondly, the research done on political and legal factors also suggests that these factors require a pro-active attitude towards these factors. Thirdly, the economic analysis suggests that the economic factors require a pro-active attitude, since it’s crucial to stay ahead of competition and that this can only be done by staying up to date on the new policies and the state of the economy. And lastly the technological part of the analysis suggests that due to the rapid development of technology, firms should stay focused and adapt quickly in order to survive in an increasingly competitive economic climate. At the moment, technology progresses so fast that it is becoming increasingly hard for firms to promptly adapt. Firms who fail to adapt can miss out on all of the potential positive effects from technological advancement and as a consequence lose market share[ET4].
However the research for this report does not cover all industries, just the airline industry was used as an example, also the cost of keeping up with all these factors would be astronomical. To come up with a more definitive conclusion more research is required.
Road accident is increasing in some developing countries. A matter of this paper is being committed to increasing vehicle occupancy overtime or to the fact that a particular type of accident is much more common than was the case ten years ago. Large numbers of mortalities often occur by accident of commercial vehicles. On developing country impact factors on accidents and fatalities are the main aim of this paper. This paper investigates the modeling and implementation of a coordination system within a simulation environment to foresee future accident rate. The approach of analysis used must be correspondingly robust and objective about evaluating accident rate. By comparing changes in vehicle ownership, data used to investigate the factors behind these changes such as income, registered vehicles depends on employments, how far work and residential area from each other's and population depends on changing household structure. They should not be too sensitive to departures from model assumptions or the presence of a substantial number of outliers. Robust regression techniques are recommended instead of ordinary least square regression. Analysis of factors does in five steps and by using data from Australia as a case study, robust regression appears the most effective coefficient in robust equation to prevent it, consequently, reduce fatalities.
Subject heading; Vehicle ownership, Accident rate, robust regression
Contamination growth and increased the one hand vehicles, rising vehicle ownership ratio per capita in society, increased travel demand in household size, to double traffic volume and usage of personal belongings as the root causes of driving accidents and mortalities in come. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent populations, road accidents in 1998 about 500 thousand death and 15 million not wounded, and if social effects to delete about 53 billion dollars of economic damage have left. This paper aims to find a relationship between vehicle ownership and accident rate in a developed country to predict future and make a plan to reduce economic damages and death. By prediction of vehicle ownership growth and relation between its factors and accident, some factors describe are influenced on limitation of accidents in the future by controlling them.
To accomplish this task several objectives were undertaken:
A) Determine the relationship of accident rate with vehicle ownership factors.
B) Determine the regression equation of the ownership factors and accident rate.
C) Forecast accident rate for 2012- short term.
This paper discusses the data collection effort and scope of determining factors of vehicle ownership, identify and describe possible factors that may effect by accident rate, in addition collect reliable information of vehicle ownership in case study to analysis obtains data with a statistical method.
The key finding of this paper comes from a number of vehicles per households; Population-Based Accident Rates consist of Area population, Number of registered vehicles, Number of licensed drivers, and Highway mileage (useful on fatality accident rate).
Little guidance is available with regard to research of TRRL which in 1972 a small team was formed within the Overseas Unit at TRRL to undertake research on road safety in Third World countries in order to establish the nature and extent of the problem and, in the longer tirm to assess the effectiveness of remedial measures.
The number of fatalities as opposed to casualties or injury accidents has been used because the poor accident recording systems in most Third World countries mean that only fatalities are recorded to any reasonable degree of accuracy. In addition, numbers of vehicles licensed to have been used, contrary to millions of vehicle kilometers travelled per annum because very rarely are accurate n-point or trend censes carried out in developing countries to provide such data.
In examining the relationship between deaths and vehicle ownership for three different developed countries. The two parameters are not linearly related over time. For the periods chosen there is an apparent difference between each country in the sensitivity of deaths to changes in the number of vehicles. Thus to double the number of road deaths in each country would require an eight-fold increase in the number of vehicles in the USA, a four-fold increase in Australia and a two-fold increase in New Zealand.
High vehicle ownership in low income households, combined with a lack of alternatives such as good walk accessibility or public transport, suggest that some households may be „forced into car ownership and use. The use of urban public transport is still only a small component of total passenger transport, the largest component being travel by private car. As young people enter relationships their income rises as they often have two income earners contributing to their family income. Population and median income of household depend on the territory. Growth in car ownership has largely been through the increase in the number of households with two or more cars as the proportion of one car households has remained remarkably constant at 44% since the mid 1960(Figure1).
The size of households has declined as people are getting married or cohabiting later, there are more divorces and separations, and people are living longer in single person households. The other factor affecting demand for car ownership is the possession of a driving license.
Types of Statistics
Accident statistics generally address and describe one of three principal informational elements:
* Accident occurrence
* Accident involvements
* Accident severity
Accident occurrence relates to the numbers and types of accidents that occur, which are often described in terms of rates based on population or vehicle-miles travelled. Accident involvement concerns the numbers and types of vehicles and drivers involved in accidents, with population-based rates a very popular method of expression. Accident severe is generally dealt with by proxy: the numbers of fatalities and fatality rates are often used as a measure of the seriousness of accidents.
Accident rates generally fall into one of two broad categories: population-based rates, and exposure-based rates. The number of motor vehicles registered is increasing, and urban design tends to encourage their use with the construction of freeways and dispersed housing. First one is the case study of this paper, which relates to most effective factors f vehicle ownership without measuring facility of roads (highway mileage). Hence, by this assumption, future results concentrate on short term influence time.
The principal source of demographic data in Australia is the Census of Population, and Housing conducted every five years by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Data collected from the registered vehicle in Australia's state by state in any types, which gather in Australia Bareau. Moreover, new vehicles sales and registration from Australian Automotive Intelligence, Yearbook 2009
People aged 20-24 years also had the highest adjudication rate of all age groups for dangerous or negligent driving. The rate for men of this age (712 adjudications per 100,000) was about seven times higher than that for women (97 per 100,000).
The largest and most complete accident database is the General Estimates System (GES) which was extensively used for the development of this report. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, there were 1601 people killed in 1,456 road accidents in the year 2006. Thus over 130 people are killed in crashes each month. During this same time period about 22,500 people were seriously injured. The number of crashes on Australian roads has been consistent with the past three years and is higher than European roads. For a crash to be eligible for the GES sample.
The crash statistics recorded by the Roads and Traffic Authority and included in this Statistical Statement are confined to those crashes which conform to the national guidelines for reporting and classifying road vehicle crashes. The main criteria are:
1 The crash was reported to the police.
2 The crash occurred on a road open to the public.
3 The crash involved at least one moving road vehicle.
4 The crash involved at least one person being killed or injured or at least one motor vehicle being towed away.
Reports for some crashes are not received until well into the following year and after the annual crash database has been finalized. These amount to less than 1% of recorded crashes and are counted in the following year's statistics.
MM-Robust Regression (s-estimator)
MM-Robust Regression is performed in two steps. In the first step, the subset of observations constituting the dominant trend is identified by use of the S-estimate of location and scale. In the second step, the regression is performed with points further from the dominant trend having their influence discounted. The kernel function ρc will give a greatly inflated value to points situated „far from the dominant location. When the sum of the kernels is minimized the distant points (outliers) will contribute large terms in the sum, and therefore, will have little influence on the regression parameters. The kernel function used in this application of MM-Robust regression is the bi-square function. The weights for the bisquare decline as soon as e departs from 0, and are 0 for |e| > k. The value k for the bisquare estimators is called a tuning constant; smaller values of k produce more resistance to outliers, but at the expense of lower efficiency when the errors are normally distributed.
The tuning constant is generally picked to give reasonably high efficiency in the normal case; in particular,
k = 4.685σ for the bisquare (where σ is the standard deviation of the errors) produce 95-percent efficiency when the errors are normal, and still offer protection against outliers. specifying the argument method='MM' to rlm requests bisquare estimates with start values determined by a preliminary bounded-influence regression.
A more objective method is to use the goodness of fit. The scatter plot of the original un-smoothed data against the predicted curve shows that MM-Robust regression with local polynomial smoothing gives a good fit to the data.
Compute the vehicle ownership level by using generated observation times and prior parameter values from logistic model
Gaussian noise add to the solution
On above methodology flowchart, a sample size of 108 and a standard deviation of 35 (vehicles per thousand persons) is used in all of the simulations. Stage 1 Linear Regression, apply the linearization transformation to the logistic differential equation, from which is obtained, by robust regression, a value of the saturation parameter (α) and the growth parameter (κ). Stage 2 non-Linear Regression, using the values obtained from the first stage as initial values; solve the nonlinear least-squares problem (algorithm: Gauss-Newton).
The saturation parameter (α) is accurately inferred by non-linear regression the mean absolute error (MAE) is approximately 1%. For MMRR the MAR is approximately 30%. Both methods are less accurate for the growth parameter (κ). For MMRR the MAE is in excess of 100%. In contrast, for the nonlinear method the MAE is about 3%. The time parameter (γ) is most accurate (MAE 0.1%). Non-linear regression clearly out-performs the other inference methods. Nonlinear robust regression proper is worth investigating.
Yi=xi1θ1+…+ xipθp+ei (i=1, …, n)
As in simple regression, the least squares (LS) technique for estimating the unknown parameters θ1, …, θp is quite sensitive to the presence of outlying points. ei is error term which is captured the effect of all omitted variables. The identification of such points becomes more difficult, because it is no longer possible to spot the influential points in a scatter plot. Therefore, it is important to have a tool for identifying such points. In the last few decades, several statisticians have given consideration to robust regression, whereas others have directed their attention to regression diagnostics.
Regression diagnostics first attempt to identify points that have to be deleted from the data set, before applying a regression method. Robust regression tackles these problems in the inverse order, by designing estimators that dampen the impact of points that would be highly influential otherwise. A robust procedure tries to accommodate the majority of the data. Bad points, lying far away from the pattern formed by the good ones, will consequently possess large residuals from the robust fit. So in addition to insensitivity to outliers, a robust regression estimator makes the detection of these points an easy job.
r1,..,rm - β1, … ,βn m≥n
Gauss-Newton algorithm finds the minimum the sum of squares.
= Solution to the normal equations
SO Equation 4
Analysis of factors that are related to vehicle ownership is a role of finding equation among accident rate and vehicle ownership factors.
Income, Registered Veh, Population
Formula vehicle ownership factors and year
Formula vehicle ownership factors and accident rate
Accident on 2012 individually
Predict amount of vehicle ownership factors on 2012
Chang scale of data by Rate
Regression formula among vehicle ownership factors and accident rate
Accident rate on 2012 by scaled data
By data that are collected from Australia, and MM-Robust regression analysis by Excel to find the relationship between them on past 19 years and use it to improve data to next 2 years to forecast accident rate. Below some results of the regression show and it is acceptable for linear equation, therefore, regression equation follows them.
Relationship between vehicle ownership factors and accident rate individually;
Y1= Income of household ïƒ AI= -10-4 y1+13.694
Y2= registered Vehicles ïƒ AR= -7.41E-6 y2 +15.163
Y3=youth population ïƒ AP= -1.3E-3y3+34.228
Regression equation among accident rate and vehicle ownership factors which have most effective on accident rate;
Y= -2.090.22 θ1 -3.614 θ2+ 0.178 θ3+1570
- θ1= Income of household (per 1000$)
- θ2 = population (per 100000 people)
- θ3 = Registered vehicles (per 10000 vehicle)
- Y= Accident rate (per 1000 vehicle)
To forecast future vehicle ownership parameters, use equation between each one and accident rate independently;
Figure 2 Accident rate against time related to vehicle ownership factors (x= year, y= accident number)
Rate which are measured from equation 4 change as below:
θ1= Income per one thousand dollar in accident= 19.14
θ2= Registered vehicles per 10000 number in accident= 35.24
θ3= Population per 100,000 people in accident rate = 24196
Accident on 2012 = Input all θ1, θ2, θ3 on regression formula = 5553
To sum up, using this formula can help urban organizations to predict accident rate and control them by traffic safety. In this paper, three factors which are most effective in vehicle ownership to accident rate conclude; Income of household, the amount of youth in household, and number of registered vehicles are focused.
An assumption of this paper uses fatality accidents instead of accident statistics because in a developed country these two parameters have same rate, which occurs of same culture in their countries. Moreover, Australia selected as the study area since it has the real statistics for several years ago. Besides, survivors solve problems of vehicle ownership factors to decrease an accident rate.
Relationship between vehicle ownership factors and accident rate individually:
- Y4 = -0.0001y1 + 13.694 ïƒ y1= Income of household
- Y5 = -7.41E-06y2 + 15.163 ïƒ y2= Registered vehicles
- Y6 = -0.0013y3 + 34.228 ïƒ y3= Population
- Yi= Accident rate that relate to each factors of vehicle ownership individually
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